From Simple Prescriptive to Complex Descriptive Models: An Example from a Recent Command Decision Experiment
Abstract
Recent research into command modeling has allowed us to build theoretical utility-based representations of the three layers: physical, information and cognitive (see Figure 1) to give models that transform observable data through interpretive indicators and onto course of action assessment. The key transfer function is driven by (a minimum of) two parameters and the function changes its shape (and influence) as the decision-maker's context changes (for example, as local decisions become more global in their potential impact) [1]. The paper explores the applicability of the theory using results of a recent BG command decision-making experiment. The experimental results show that splitting factors can be derived from the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training experience and history of the decision-maker need to be taken into account. The paper recommends that in order to capture these deeper aspects of the human decision-making process, there is a need to: Define a landscape whose contours are defined by the subjective context; Evaluate costs of moving over the landscape; and Overlay opponents current positions and intents. The landscapes are wholly subjective and will change as the decision-maker's world changes over time. The example will illustrate these points showing that the move towards complex, less prescriptive C2 models will increase the need for more subjective C2 experimentation. The challenge then is how to capture this deeper representation of human decision making in a way that is useful for quantitative modeling.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA466751
Entities
People
- Graham Mathieson
- Jim Moffat
- Jim Q. Smith
- Lorraine Dodd