Indicators of NGO Security in Afghanistan

Abstract

In Afghanistan, development projects play a critical role in the creation of democracy. However, the precarious security environment and large number of attacks on NGO workers stall development efforts. Arguments on NGO security claim that violence against aid workers is the result of US military presence, local warlords, poppy cultivation, differing ethnic groups, and distance of the aid project from Kabul. The author tested these arguments through statistical analysis and key informant interviews. Using the number of security incidents against NGO's during a 14-month period as a dependent variable and each province as a case, the author conducted individual statistical analysis of each argument. No single variable proved to be largely significant. However, when all independent variables and data were combined in a multiple regression, three factors proved to be significant. One, if the province borders Pakistan, it will have a significantly larger level of violence on average. Two, an increase in poppy cultivation correlates to a reduction in violence against NGO's. Three, provinces with a higher percentage of home radios correlate to a higher level of violence against NGO's. Overall, the model accounts for about 54% of the variation in violence rate against NGO's. These results suggest an integrated approach to military (security) operations and NGO (development) projects is critical to the success of Afghanistan as a democracy.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 14, 2004
Accession Number
ADA467616

Entities

People

  • Clinton Watts
  • Ed Laurance

Organizations

  • United States Military Academy

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Data Analysis
  • Data Sets
  • Databases
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Geographic Information Systems
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • National Governments
  • Nato
  • Regression Analysis
  • Security
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistical Tests
  • Students
  • Surveys
  • Terrorists
  • United States Military Academy

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.