Problem representation and variation in the forecasts of 'political experts'
Abstract
Forecasts often involve judgments about "ill-structured" problems that lack an optimal solution or agreement about boundary conditions. This paper describes how the degree of structure of the problem and the forecasting time frame can be used to form a classification scheme of different types of forecasting problems. This scheme can be used as a guide for choosing the most appropriate approach and methods to use in analyses and predictions. The paper next describes a method for summarizing how individuals or groups of problem solvers analyze "ill-structured" social and political problems. Examples of this method, based on the construction of free-hand causal diagrams of novice and expert political forecasters, are presented. Experience to date using these schematic summaries indicate that such summaries are useful for understanding the reasoning processes of clients and to check the reasoning process used by experts from different backgrounds and experiences in making forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2001
- Accession Number
- ADA468436
Entities
People
- Helen E. Purkitt