Prediction Markets: Another Tool in the Intelligence Kitbag

Abstract

Prediction markets (or information markets) are an efficient mechanism to aggregate information from diverse sources to develop the probability of an event. Such markets have accurately forecast presidential elections, Hollywood Academy Award winners and marketing campaigns in corporations, to name a few examples. The U.S. Intelligence Community does not lack for data in the global war on terrorism. However, the 9/11 Commission Report highlights the difficulty of pooling information gathered by multiple collectors and fusing it into a coherent, comprehensive analysis to be used by strategic leaders. This paper explores the viability of prediction markets to support intelligence analysis by coalescing data from multiple sources into a glimpse of the future.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 20, 2007
Accession Number
ADA469632

Entities

People

  • Brett D. Weigle

Organizations

  • United States Army War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Commerce
  • Department Of Defense
  • Economics
  • Education
  • Employment
  • Governments
  • Intelligence Community
  • Law
  • Money
  • National Security
  • Personnel Management
  • Security
  • Students
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Economics
  • Systems Analysis and Design