Political Trends in the New Eastern Europe: Ukraine and Belarus
Abstract
Belarus remains the last true dictatorship in Europe. As such, its internal and external security agenda is an abiding matter of concern to the European and Western communities. But its trajectory is of equal concern to Moscow, which has been the prime external supporter and subsidizer of the Belarussian government under President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. So while Europe seeks to induce democratic change and democratic forces are trying to establish themselves in the face of withering oppression, Russia has hitherto been the main external prop for Lukashenka's policies. But despite this support -- most pronounced until 2007 in terms of defense cooperation which is continuing, and in energy subsidies which are being terminated -- tensions between Moscow and Minsk are growing. The brief energy cutoffs imposed by Moscow at the start of the year and Belarus' retaliation shows that not all is well in that relationship. Not surprisingly, Lukashenka has now turned back to the West for foreign support, but it will not be forthcoming without significant domestic reform, which is quite unlikely. Ukraine presents a different series of challenges to Western leaders and audiences. It too has suffered from Russian energy coercion, but its political system is utterly different from Belarus and in a state of profound turmoil. Therefore, precise analysis of what has occurred and what is currently happening in Ukraine is essential to a correct understanding of trends there that can then inform sound policy making. These two papers open the way to an informed understanding of important issues in European security and enable readers to begin to make sense of the complex issues involved in each country. In both cases, the interplay of domestic and foreign factors of security is critical to any grasp of the issues in Belarus and Ukraine and thus to sound policy analysis and policy making in regard to them.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA469637
Entities
People
- Arkady Moshes
- Vitali Silitski
Organizations
- United States Army War College