Reply to the Comment by M. Lockwood et al. on the IDV Index: Its Derivation and Use in Inferring Long-Term Variations

Abstract

From an analysis of geomagnetic and solar wind data, Lockwood et al (1999) (hereinafter referred to as LSW99) reported that The solar coronal magnetic field had increased by more than a factor of two during the last century. If true, this would be an important discovery. Recently, Svalgaard and Cliver (2006) (hereinafter referred to as SCOS) reported an analysis based on our newly developed interdiurnal variability (IDV) index of geomagnetic activity which indicated that cycle averages of the solar field varied no more than -25% over the same time interval and are now decreasing. Here, we answer the criticisms of Lockwood et al (2006) (hereafter referred to as LRFSO6) to our paper. In sum, we find their objections without merit. If our prediction that the next solar cycle will be the smallest in 100 years (Svalgaard et al. 2005) bears out, this debate may be settled by direct solar wind measurements within the next few years. In the following sections, we respond to the various points raised by LRFSO6: percentage change, B sub r versus B, regression technique including the effect of missing data), and analysis procedures.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 21, 2006
Accession Number
ADA471600

Entities

People

  • Edward W. Cliver
  • L. Svalgaard

Organizations

  • Air Force Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Research Laboratories
  • Calibration
  • Cross Correlation
  • Cycles
  • Intervals
  • Magnetic Fields
  • Measurement
  • Military Research
  • Regression Analysis
  • Solar Activity
  • Solar Cycle
  • Solar Wind
  • Spacecraft
  • Sun
  • Sunspots
  • Time Intervals

Readers

  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Solar Physics
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference