U.S.-China Relations after Resolution of Taiwan's Status
Abstract
Although it appears unlikely that the question of Taiwan's status and ultimate relationship to China will be resolved any time soon, it is instructive to speculate about how its resolution might affect U.S.- China relations. There are, broadly speaking, 10 different logical possibilities for trajectories that the cross-Strait relationship could follow. Four of them are peaceful: continuation of the current unresolved status quo, peaceful unification, peaceful independence, and a compromise resolution. Six involve Chinese use of force against Taiwan: violent unification with U.S. intervention, violent unification without U.S. intervention, violent independence with U.S. intervention, violent independence without U.S. intervention, violent irresolution with U.S. intervention, and violent irresolution without U.S. intervention. Looking across all these cases reveals that simply assuming that the Taiwan situation has been "resolved" is hardly enough to understand the nature of the subsequent security relationship between China and the United States. Instead, the manner and mode in which the Taiwan question is decided will make a great deal of difference. To the extent one can generalize, the obvious appears to be true: The consequences of peaceful outcomes -- including continued peaceful irresolution -- are both more predictable and generally better for relations between Washington and Beijing. In contrast, nonpeaceful resolutions of Taiwan's status could cause U.S.-China relations to fall anywhere from reasonable amity to a Cold War-like confrontation, depending on the circumstances surrounding the conflict and its outcome. If the result is formal independence for Taiwan, subsequent U.S.-China relations will likely be cooperative. If the result is forcible unification for Taiwan, the United States and China will likely find themselves in a hostile Cold War.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA471950
Entities
People
- David A. Shlapak
- Roger Cliff
Organizations
- RAND Corporation