Implications of an Independent Kosovo for Russia's Near Abroad
Abstract
This paper evaluates the argument that Kosovo's situation represents a precedent for separatists elsewhere by comparing it to the four regions in the Former Soviet Union most often cited in relation to it: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Transdniestria in Moldova, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. The author examines all five cases, with particular attention given to three factors for analysis: the intractability of each conflict, the potential viability of each region as an independent state, and the impact of external influences. The results of this examination are presented in both matrix and narrative form. Overwhelmingly, it is the impact of external influences -- the engagement of the international community -- which has shaped Kosovo's situation, rendering it fundamentally different from the cases in Russia's near-abroad. Four key conclusions are drawn, identifying differences between Kosovo and the other case studies. First, in Kosovo, external influences have tended to be multinational in composition and neutral in approach, representing the impartial support of the international community. This is particularly evident in the composition and deployment objectives of peacekeepers in the regions in question. Second, the United Nations identified Kosovo as a region needing international protection under Security Council resolution 1244, rendering its situation unique under international law. Third, while viability is problematic in all case studies, the support the international community has provided Kosovo has strengthened its economy and civil society far beyond those of the other regions, and will continue to do so. Finally, the original impetus for international involvement, the repudiation of responsibility of the Serbian state toward its ethnic Albanian citizens, was profound. Given this profound abuse of power on the part of the Serbian state, it is unrealistic to expect Kosovo to return to a subordinate political relationship with that state.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA473226
Entities
People
- Daniel L. Burghart
- Melissa Sinclair
- Michael Baranick
- Michael H. Hoffman
- Samuel T. Schwabe
- Zoe M. Hunter
Organizations
- National Defense University