Two Years after Andijan: Assessing the Past and Thinking towards the Future
Abstract
This testimony contains the statement of Olga Oliker, Senior International Policy Analyst, The RAND Corporation, that was presented before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe on May 18, 2007. Two years after the events in Andijan province, in Uzbekistan, both the events themselves and their implications continue to be questioned and reassessed. This is appropriate, both because there has yet to be a credible independent investigation into the events themselves, and because the question of Andijan goes to the root of the U.S.-Uzbek relationship, and how it developed and declined over the last decade. But perhaps more important than the question of Uzbekistan in particular is the question of U.S. policy more broadly: specifically, U.S. policy towards regimes that are oppressive of the rights of their populations, as Uzbekistan has been. What options does a country like the United States have if it wants to promote change in such countries, and what policies stand the best chance of success? To answer that question, however, it is worth reexamining the question of U.S. reform efforts abroad more broadly. A look at the historical record demonstrates two things. The first is that the United States is not particularly effective at promoting democratization abroad. The second is that it has been working to promote democratization abroad for a rather long time. The most important thing for U.S. policy is to learn from the experience with Uzbekistan. If the United States truly seeks democratic reform as a component of its own security (as well as for moral and ethical reasons), it needs to improve its implementation and evaluation of reform efforts abroad. Long- and short-term goals need to be squared, and approaches that mitigate the short-term effects of long-term policies need to be developed. Accusations of inconsistency must be treated seriously and responded to, as well. Transparency is always a good idea, no matter how advanced the democracy.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA473410
Entities
People
- Olga Oliker
Organizations
- RAND Corporation