Micro-PSYPRE (Psi m sub x): Toward Computing the Future
Abstract
The acute desire, on the part of the United States, to engage in Effects-Based Operations (or, for short, EBO; see e.g. Deptula 2001, Davis 2001) is here to stay. The name may of course change (and that's why we refer generically to computing the future), but the desire to determine what the future will bring, not just with respect to the physical effects of physical attack, but also with respect to the psychological effects of physical and psychological attack, will persist for a very long time. Even our enemies understand that the exclusive use of classical, purely kinetic, force-on-force conflict is obsolete: It is certainly not the mode in which to take on the United States. Our enemies see their only chance in unrestricted warfare (Liang & Xiangsui 1999). If for no other reason than that we must fight fire with fire, and answer the various dimensions of asymmetrical conflict, we must rely on EBO, which by definition seeks to exploit the effects of blue force actions on individual and collective psyches of red and grey forces. Unfortunately, we must all confess on the other hand that, at least at present, EBO is just a pipe dream. What's the source of the problem? That's easy: vagueness. The kinetic effects of, say, a cruise missile can be calculated on the strength of clarity achieved by physics and engineering. But when trying to calculate the effects of such a missile on morale, clarity is hard to come by. EBO will never mature beyond fantasy unless we can formalize and mechanize the murky terms and concepts currently used to describe the cognitive side of it. In short, unless we have a formal account, with a corresponding implementation, of what it means to be a person, we will never be able to engage with any precision and reliability in EBO. The solution to the problem is to engineer a system able to PREdict the effects, including the PSYchological effects, of actions and sequences of actions we call this system PSYPRE or, for short, simply Psi.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 05, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA475621
Entities
People
- Konstantine Arkoudas
- Micah Clark
- Selmer Bringsjord
- Trevor Housten
Organizations
- Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute