A Critical Assessment of Total Force Pilot Requirements, Management, and Training
Abstract
The services are undergoing a fundamental reshaping and restructuring, driven by the demands of a new era of tighter fiscal constraints, new security challenges, new technology, and increased reliance, in some services, on the reserve component. As they are positioning themselves in this new environment and drawing down, the services find themselves constraining accessions, encouraging voluntary departures, and imposing involuntary separations. There is considerable uncertainty as to what these actions bode for the future in terms of supply and demand of personnel and the sustainability of the required force. Despite the current environment of pilot overages, the Air Force projected, in 1992, a shortage of pilots, beginning in FY1993 and widening to a 3,000 pilot shortfall by FY1997. Faced with this seeming contradiction of a shortage in the midst of a drawdown, the Office of the Secretary of Defense asked RAND to undertake a comprehensive assessment of these issues. This documented briefing examines the supply and demand for pilots in the near term and the somewhat longer term (through FY2002). One of the major contributions of the briefing is the development of conceptual models that allow estimates of inventory and requirements even in changing and uncertain environments. In particular, the report addresses the following questions: (1) What are the historical personnel trends for pilots in terms of accessions, retention, and transfer rates between the active and reserve forces?; (2) What are the current requirements for pilots and are they changing and why?; (3) What are the current personnel and training policies used to manage and shape pilot accessions and retention, and how effective will they be in sustaining active and reserve structures in the light of changing requirements and the changing environment?; and (4) What is the effect of civilian airline demand on the military, and what impact will it have on the sustainability of the military pilot force?
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1994
- Accession Number
- ADA476460
Entities
People
- Claire Mitchell Levy
- Clifford M. Graf Ii
- Harry J. Thie
- Sheila Nataraj Kirby
- William W. Taylor
Organizations
- RAND Corporation