Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?
Abstract
The recent increased pace in which extreme weather patterns are occurring has received national attention. Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat environment. While this strategic process is developing, it would be wise for the new African Combatant Commander (AFRICOM) to start planning for his Area of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author recommends the formation of an interim planning cell, a new Joint Interagency Coordination Group for Climate Change (JIACG-CC), that would guarantee unity of effort in the case of a climate disaster. The author presents the case of Darfur, Sudan, as the first climate change crisis to challenge the new combatant commander for AFRICOM. Located in southern Sudan, the Darfur region has experienced a 40% decrease in rainfall since the early 1980s and is steadily losing agricultural production due to the Sahara's southward expansion. This desertification turns arable lands into desert by depleting the soil of nutrients. The associated loss of rainwater coupled with desertification changed the dynamics of the local population. The shortage of resources created distrust and desperation. In 2003 competition for food and water devolved into regional conflict. This conflict is continuing to escalate into genocide; more than 200,000 people have been killed and 2.5 million refugees have been displaced.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 06, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA476789
Entities
People
- Terri A. Yackle
Organizations
- Naval War College