"Asymmetric Fast Transients" Applied to Reduce DOD Acquisition Cycle Time

Abstract

The need to implement a truly agile military acquisition process is at hand. To this end, an innovative tool the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider to reduce risk and shorten acquisition cycle time is the Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking (PREDICT) methodology. How can PREDICT make the acquisition process more agile when numerous acquisition reform efforts of significant scope have tried and failed? PREDICT's unique feature is the use of formal elicitation of expert knowledge to calculate concept reliability prior to testing. Statistical analysis of the expert knowledge yields a calculation of reliability and uncertainty of the technology or concept. PREDICT is supporting the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) mission of maintaining and certifying the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons without system testing. For DoD, this could provide an alternative methodology for determining technology readiness levels and risk before launching an acquisition effort. This research will explain the PREDICT process, and show how its application to the DoD acquisition process could provide the following benefits: (1) Shorten the Technology Planning Integrated Process Team (TPIPT) and Modernization Planning processes; (2) Enable the assessment of reliability for new concepts at Milestone A and for legacy systems undergoing change, thus eliminating unproductive paths earlier in the process; (3) Optimize test planning and execution by showing testing impact to reliability; and (4) Enable transfer of knowledge as experienced personnel transition out of programs. A classified Los Alamos report will document the results of the PREDICT reliability calculation for the B61-7 and B61-11 modifications to the Life Extension Program. Because of "need to know," access to the classified report will be determined on a case-by-case basis after the initial reliability estimate is completed in the fall of 2005.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA477106

Entities

People

  • Jeffrey L. Schaff

Organizations

  • Air War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Counter WMD
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Aerial Warfare
  • Air Force
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Complex Systems
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Military Acquisition
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Systems Engineering
  • Test And Evaluation
  • War Colleges
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Engineering

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Software Engineering
  • Systems Analysis and Design