Toward a Concept of Risk for Effective Military Decision Making
Abstract
This report critically examines existing concepts of risk and offers recommendations for improving the definition of risk and other risk-related terms. The author highlights the fact that the concept of risk is problematic because it is ambiguous and vague. In the vernacular, risk has multiple meanings including (a) risk as potential loss, (b) risk as a probability of a negative event occurring, and (c) risk as variability, volatility, or uncertainty regarding events in the future. In addition, many organizational definitions of risk define the concept in terms of an integration of the probability of a threat and the severity of its potential consequences. The author examines the definition of risk promulgated by (a) the Government of Canada through the Treasury Board Secretariat in its 2001 Integrated Risk Management Framework, (b) the Department of National Defense and Canadian Forces (DND/CF) through the 2002 Joint Doctrine on Risk Management for CF Operations and the 2005 Integrated Risk Management Guideline and Policy documents, and (c) the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) and the International Organization for Standardization and International Electrotechnical Commission (ISO/IEC). The report concludes with recommendations for the definition of risk, expected utility, and uncertainty, which the author proposes form a set of concepts that can contribute to effective decision making in defense and security contexts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA477582
Entities
People
- David R Mandel
Organizations
- Defence Research and Development Canada