Chaos Theory and the Effort in Afghanistan
Abstract
This paper will examine the complex security environment in Afghanistan using Chaos Theory as a contextual foundation. Chaos Theory, in contrast to the classic Newtonian sciences, provides the capability of deriving patterns and predictability from seeming disorder. Its application within the physical sciences has yielded tremendous results and the theory has begun making inroads into the social and economic sciences. Chaos Theory provides a method of analysis for complex, non-linear systems such as the ones that challenge the coalition seeking to rebuild Afghanistan. Current strategic planning paradigms seek to simplify complex issues, often failing to recognize the complex interactions upon which these issues hinge. The paper will provide a brief overview of technical aspects of Chaos Theory and then use the Chaos Theory lens to examine the success of the Marshall Plan for Western Europe following the Second World War. The paper will then turn the focus to the present and examine the military, social, religious, and economic contexts of the current struggle in Afghanistan, offering recommendations to shape a future strategy to realize the coalition's goals.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 29, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA478418
Entities
People
- Rhea E. Dobson
Organizations
- United States Army War College