First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices

Abstract

Climate variability is simply represented by teleconnection patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and Southern Oscillation (SO) with associated indices Two approaches can be used to predict the indices: forward and backward methods The forward method is commonly used to predict the index fluctuation p at time t with a given temporal increment t Using this method% it was found that the index (such as for NAO) has the Brownian fluctuations On the base of the first passage time (FPT) concept, the backward method is introduced in this study to predict the typical time span (t) needed to generate a fluctuation in the index of a given increment p After the five monthly indices (AO, AAO, NAO, PNA, SO) running through the past history, the FPT density functions are obtained. FPT presents a new way to detect the temporal variability of the climate indices. The basic features for the index prediction are also discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA478896

Entities

People

  • Peter Cheng Chu

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Barometric Pressure
  • Brownian Motion
  • Climate Change
  • Coefficients
  • Data Science
  • Equations
  • Factor Analysis
  • Fokker Planck Equations
  • High Resolution
  • Information Science
  • Kolmogorov Equations
  • Oceans
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Standards

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Theoretical Analysis.