Navigation and Decision Making Efficiencies Under Conditions of Uncertainty

Abstract

Each and every day we make thousands of decisions in which our understanding of the situation is not completely known. Although we may have incomplete knowledge, we may possess knowledge that will be helpful in making a `good" decision. For example, when purchasing an automobile, one does not know for certain how reliable this car will be. However, given the make and model's previous track record, one might be able to generate an initial estimate its reliability. However, given that the car is used, there is some uncertainty about how well the car was maintained and how it was used. One may consider purchasing an inspection by a mechanic. Following the inspection, one might be more confident that the car will be reliable-however, even with this additional information one is still in a state of uncertainty. One may consider purchasing an additional inspection to reduce one's uncertainty even more. As one can see, an individual can continue to gather more-and-more information at a greater and greater accumulated cost. However, this additional information comes at a cost that may not exceed the expected gain in knowledge.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA479293

Entities

People

  • Brian J. Stankiewicz

Organizations

  • University of Texas at Austin

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Air Force
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Automobiles
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Command And Control
  • Command And Control Systems
  • Computational Science
  • Computers
  • Efficiency
  • Models
  • Navigation
  • Psychology
  • Scientific Research
  • Uncertainty
  • Vision Disorders

Readers

  • Government Contracting/Procurement.
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Systems Analysis and Design