Power Law Decay in Model Predictability Skill
Abstract
Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests long-term predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long, such as 50-60 day) predictability is not an "outlier" and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA479712
Entities
People
- Lakshmi H. Kantha
- Leonid M. Ivanov
- Oleg V. Melnichenko
- Peter Cheng Chu
- Yuri A. Poberezhny
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School