Verification of the AFWA 3-Element Severe Weather Forecast Algorithm

Abstract

Accurate severe thunderstorm forecasts are critical to providing sufficient lead-time to protect lives and property The Air Force Weather Agency has developed a 3-Element Severe Weather Forecast Algorithm that when applied to model forecasts gives and outlook region for severe thunderstorms improvements were made in this study to enhance the algorithm's forecast skill, reduce its false alarm rate, and thereby increase the amount of lead-time for installation commanders to take decisive action to protect personnel and resources. This paper discusses the performance of the 3-Element Algorithm in its original form, and the adjustments made to overcome some of its limitations.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA479883

Entities

People

  • Daniel E. Pagliaro

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Boundary Layer
  • Computer Programming
  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Detection
  • Energy
  • False Alarms
  • Geographic Regions
  • Lapse Rate
  • Lead Time
  • Meteorology
  • New Mexico
  • Operating Systems
  • Potential Energy
  • Rocky Mountains
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Government and Public Administration Law.
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies