Street Gangs: A Modeling Approach to Evaluating "At Risk" Youth
Abstract
Street gangs have plagued the United States for decades. One focus of current gang prevention efforts strives to reduce the number of new recruits to local street gangs. This research proposes the uses of modeling and decision analysis to aid in identifying potentially "at risk" children likely to join a street gang in Montgomery County, Ohio. A stronger means of identifying "at risk" children can lead to a more efficient placement of resources to reduce the number of street gang recruits. The approach also aids in differentiating between neighborhoods to help focus efforts. Information obtained from value-focused thinking (VFT) analysis is used to determine the allocation of six hypothetical gang prevention programs for Montgomery County. A notional knapsack analysis is performed to illustrate the potential notional percentage reduction of "at risk" children using the six hypothetical gang prevention programs within the 17 cities in the county. Different notional scenarios are discussed and a notional scenario is recommended to demonstrate a potential use of the proposed model -- and operations research in general -- in the public sector.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA480750
Entities
People
- Bernard J. Loeffelholz
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology