Influence of Bogus Intelligence Reports on Confidence in Subsequent Reports
Abstract
Urban Resolve 2005 (UR05) was a human-in-the-loop experiment supported by Joint Semi-automated Forces (JSAF) simulation to replicate operations in an urban setting in 2005. This environment was used to look at how intelligence reports of varying reliability influenced confidence in those reports. Thirty participants replicated Tactical Operation Centers (TOCs) in a division and 2 brigades tasked with maintaining security in an urban setting following combat operations. Participants received intelligence briefings prior to each of eight 2 1/2 hour trials. Four trials presented the base condition with 1 accurate intelligence report and 2 bogus reports. The remaining 4 trials presented the enhanced condition with 2 accurate intelligence reports and 2 bogus reports. Participants knew that 2 reports in each condition were bogus. No significant difference was found between participant's confidence in intelligence reports prior to each trial when comparing the base condition and the enhanced condition suggesting that a higher proportion of bogus reports did not result in reduced confidence. Also, confidence levels did not decrease over trials. Interestingly, most participants tended to treat most intelligence reports as if they were good intelligence despite knowing that at least half of the reports were bogus.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA481820
Entities
People
- Brooke Schaab
Organizations
- U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences