Nuclear Proliferation: A Historical Overview

Abstract

A great deal of analysis has focused on the intentions of nuclear proliferators. Instead, this analysis focuses on capabilities. Our purpose is to understand how individual countries have developed their technical potential to produce nuclear weapons. The analysis reported here surveys the experience of 52 countries over 57 years as they have taken steps to develop nuclear related technical capabilities. For each country, key decision points in the development of those capabilities have been gathered, catalogued, and referenced. Those decisions relate to three key attributes: access to fissile material, weapons design and engineering, and treaty status. Each attribute has a spectrum of capability associated with it. The actual technical potential of a country to produce nuclear weapons is a function of its place on these spectrums. As further explained in the body of the report, we distinguish four basic levels of weapons potential: nil, modest, high, and for serial production.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA482642

Entities

People

  • Alexis Blanc
  • Brad Roberts

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • Explosives
  • Fissile Materials
  • Fission
  • Materials Laboratories
  • Materials Processing
  • Materials Science
  • Materials Testing
  • Nuclear Bombs
  • Nuclear Energy
  • Nuclear Fuels
  • Nuclear Materials
  • Nuclear Power Plants
  • Nuclear Reactors
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Research Facilities
  • Strategic Weapons

Readers

  • Business Analytics
  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.