Second Kind Predictability of Climate Models

Abstract

Atmospheric and oceanic numerical models are usually initial-value and/or boundary-value problems. Change in either initial or boundary conditions leads to a variation of model solutions. Much of the predictability research has been done on the response of model behavior to an initial value perturbation. Less effort has been made on the response of model behavior to a boundary value perturbation. In this study, the authors use the latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3) to study the model uncertainty to tiny sea surface temperature (SST) errors. The results show the urgency of investigating the second kind predictability problem for climate models.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 2003
Accession Number
ADA483221

Entities

People

  • Peter Cheng Chu
  • Shihua Lü

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Atmospheres
  • Boundaries
  • Boundary Layer
  • Boundary Value Problems
  • Climate
  • Climate Change
  • Communities
  • Distribution Functions
  • Engineering
  • Environment
  • Errors
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Sea Surface Temperature
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Surface Temperature

Readers

  • Fluid Dynamics.
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers