Probability Prediction of a Nation's Internal Conflict Based on Instability

Abstract

Since the end of cold war, predicting a nation state's instability has been a challenging national security issue for the United States. This thesis presents several methods to predict the conflict potential for failed nation states by comparing their social, economic, political, and military statistics with those in the past. This study uses the Brier scoring rule to evaluate the performances of these probability prediction methods. The study provides insights into situations where one method expects to outperform the others.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA483577

Entities

People

  • Shian-kuen Wann

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • California
  • Civil Rights
  • Data Science
  • Data Sets
  • Information Science
  • International Conflicts
  • Measurement
  • Neural Networks
  • Operations Research
  • Political Science
  • Probability
  • Regression Analysis
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Test Sets

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design