Soviet Threats to Intervene in the Middle East 1956-1973
Abstract
The Soviet Union has threatened to intervene in a Middle East conflict on six occasions: during the 1956 Suez crisis, the 1957 Syrian-Turkish crisis, the Lebanon crisis of 1958, the June 1967 War, the 1970 War of Attrition, and the October 1973 War. These six cases exhibit a strikingly consistent pattern: In each case the Soviets delayed their intervention threats until the peak of the crisis had passed (i.e., until a resolution of the conflict was already in sight and it was fairly clear that the threat would not have to be carried out). The primary factor governing the timing of Soviet threats has invariably been the U.S. response and the likelihood of escalation to direct superpower conflict. Moreover, the threats the Russians issued were frequently characterized by extremely imprecise language which implied an intent to intervene, while avoiding a binding or explicit commitment to do so. Soviet threats to intervene, therefore, appear to have been bluffs, and Moscow has not been willing to seriously challenge the position of the United States in the Middle East up through the October War. This cautiousness has hurt the Soviet position substantially and was the major cause of Egypt's defection from the Soviet camp between 1972 and 1974. The reason for Moscow's caution in the Middle East appears to be that Soviet leaders have continued to regard the American stake in the region as more important than their own. This remained true between 1956 and 1973, despite the shift in the global balance of power that occurred in this period. This reading of American interests and intentions must be continually reinforced, however, through long-term commitments and short-term demonstrations of will. Furthermore, overwhelming Soviet military preponderance in areas like the Persian Gulf may create such an inviting military opportunity as to nullify the importance of the U.S. commitment in Soviet thinking.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1980
- Accession Number
- ADA483787
Entities
People
- Francis Fukuyama
Organizations
- RAND Corporation