Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs
Abstract
This report analyzes the motivations and intentions of potential criminal adversaries of U.S. nuclear programs and facilities, from which it is possible to draw plausible inferences about actions and targets they are likely to prefer. The term "nuclear programs and facilities" is used in its broadest sense to include weapon fabrication facilities, civilian nuclear energy facilities and facilities in the fuel cycle, nuclear research facilities, facilities that fabricate fuel for naval reactors, and all related transport of nuclear material. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 explore what the three major motivational categories that might inspire nuclear-related crime. Chapter 2 deals with ideologically motivated adversaries, such as political terrorists and anti-nuclear extremists. Chapter 3 examines economically motivated adversaries, those who might engage in nuclear crime for financial gain. Chapter 4 discusses people who may be driven by personal motives, drawing largely on an analysis of psychotic bombers. Chapter 5 analyzes a special category of potential adversaries -- employees of nuclear industries -- whose motivations could be ideological, economic, or personal. Chapters 6 and 7, respectively, report the authors' analyses of the motivations behind arson and mass murder, two non-nuclear crimes that serve as analogs for possible actions in the nuclear domain. Chapter 8 gives an overview of the nuclear incidents that have already occurred and examines the apparent motivations behind threat messages involving claimed possession of nuclear material or weapons. Chapter 9 considers the climate for potential malevolent actions given recent news and fictional coverage of nuclear programs and the accident at Three Mile Island. Chapter 10 presents and discusses a matrix linking specific motivations with the possible actions they might inspire. Chapter 11 reviews the authors' conclusions and their implications for safeguarding nuclear facilities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1980
- Accession Number
- ADA484016
Entities
People
- Brian Jenkins
- David Ronfeldt
- Gail Bass
- Geraldine Petty
- Joseph Krofcheck
- Konrad Kellen
- Robert Reinstedt
Organizations
- RAND Corporation