Modeling the Effects of Direct Action Operations on an Insurgent Population
Abstract
While a successful counter-insurgency operation is dominated by political, diplomatic, informational, economic, and social components, it is often necessary to conduct police or military direct action to remove irreconcilable elements from the population. If such operations are not carefully administered and synchronized, they can have a counterproductive effect on the remainder of the population. This study examines the potential impacts of such direct action operations on the population in the struggle to gain their support and foster the legitimacy of the government. While limited in scope, the study identifies three relevant parameters that are within the control of the operational commander. The commander can devote assets to develop intelligence to provide a sufficient level of fidelity to prevent adverse actions. Closely linked to intelligence, the commander can establish a suitable threshold for operations. Finally, the commander can adjust his assets to raise or lower his capacity to develop and execute the direct action component of his operational concept. This study presents a mathematical model that identifies some of the relationships between these parameters, and offers possible measures of performance and effectiveness. Through proper monitoring of these measures and continuous reassessment of the relevant parameters, the direct action component can effectively remove irreconcilable elements and support the greater objectives of providing a secure environment for prosperity, a supportive populace, and a legitimate and capable government.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 23, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA484415
Entities
People
- Michael J. Mcguire
Organizations
- Naval War College