Strategic Insights. Volume 5, Issue 2, February 2006. The Prospects for Post-Conflict Afghanistan: A Call of the Sirens to the Country's Troubled Past
Abstract
Depending on the information source, the situation in Afghanistan is approaching unheralded success, or tragic failure. Afghanistan today lies delicately suspended between the promise of stability and democracy, and a return to its chaotic and turbulent past, which unfortunately beckons like the call of the sirens. After decades of relentless fighting in this volatile state, recent years have witnessed watershed elections and significant rebuilding. While much is yet to be accomplished, significant progress has been made in human rights, political, and economic reform, not to mention improvements in infrastructures. These positive developments are countervailed, however, by a number of extremely disturbing trends: The actual influence and control of the new, democratically elected government of Hamid Karzai extends only weakly beyond the outskirts of Kabul; ethnic fragmentation seems to be on the rise; the country, especially in the east and the south, is racked by an increasingly threatening and sophisticated insurgency that appears to be adopting strategies and tactics used in Iraq; large areas of Afghanistan are still ruled by warlords/druglords; and, possibly most damning for the long-term stabilization of Afghanistan, the country has become a narco-state with its opium crop and transport representing 60 percent of the country country's licit 2003 GDP. The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the post-conflict political transition process used for creation of the Kabul regime for Afghanistan's stabilization as well as good governance. In so doing, this paper will review and critique the Bonn Accords and Process the major driver for Afghanistan's post-conflict transition; assess the current situation in Afghanistan; and examine prospects for democratization, development, and stability.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA485125
Entities
People
- Thomas H. Johnson
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School