Surprise and Intelligence Failure
Abstract
Surprise is as old as warfare itself. The frequency of its occurrence in history, however, offers neither adequate warning nor consolation, especially when its effects can be so devastating. The events of September 11, 2001 proved especially shocking both because they were so destructive and because they were so unexpected. Yet, both the fact that the attack occurred and even the form it took should not have taken the United States completely unawares. Familiarity with terrorist methods, repeated attacks against U.S. facilities overseas, combined with indications that the continental United States was at the top of the terrorist target list might have alerted us that we were in peril of a significant attack. And yet, for reasons those who study intelligence failure will find familiar, 9/11 fits very much into the norm of surprise caused by a breakdown of intelligence warning. The 9/11 attack on the Trade Towers has often been compared to that of the Japanese against Pearl Harbor as another infamous case of intelligence failure. On both occasions, there was ample evidence that the enemy might be pushed to undertake a desperate act. But the signs leading up to 9/11 were ignored for at least three of the same reasons that the Japanese were able to catch the U.S. Pacific fleet at anchor on the morning of 7 December, 1941 -- good intelligence indicators lost in the "noise" of disinformation; a belief that the enemy lacked the technical capacity to undertake the action; finally, mirror imaging, the assumption on the part of the intelligence "consumer" that the action undertaken was unlikely because it was "illogical." It is now obvious that the inability of the CIA and the FBI to communicate at least contributed to the failure to detect the 9/11 attacks, as the failure of army and naval intelligence to cooperate aided the Pearl Harbor debacle.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 06, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA485164
Entities
People
- Douglas Porch
- James J. Wirtz
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School