Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
Abstract
The Administration is claiming success in significantly reducing violence in Iraq to the point where additional U.S. troop reductions can be considered, attributing the gains to a "troop surge" announced by President Bush on January 10, 2007. With almost all of the 28,500 "surge" forces withdrawn as of July 2008, Defense Department reports assess that overall violence is down as much as 80% since early 2007, to levels not seen since 2004, but that progress can be "fragile and tenuous" if not accompanied by national reconciliation and economic development. The Administration believes that additional "conditions-based" reductions in U.S. forces, continued building of Iraq's security forces, and likely further political progress in Iraq is now likely to produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. The Administration argues that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is increasingly recognized as capable, and that Iraqi legislative action in Iraq since the beginning of 2008 represents a substantial measure of the progress on political reconciliation that was envisioned would be facilitated by the surge. However, Maliki's growing confidence and insistence on a timeline for a U.S. withdrawal is complicating negotiations on a U.S.-Iraq agreement that would govern the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. Critics differ with the degree of progress, particularly on political reconciliation. Provincial council elections, originally planned for October 1, 2008, are now unlikely to be held in 2008 because a split between the Kurds and Iraq's Arabs over the status of Kirkuk prevented passage of a needed election law before the parliament recessed on August 1, 2008. Because there is a perception that the troop surge is succeeding, there has not been the required level of support in Congress to mandate a troop withdrawal, although there is growing support for compelling Iraq to fund key functions now funded by the United States.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 12, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA486020
Entities
People
- Kenneth Katzman
Organizations
- Library of Congress