Why Defeating Insurgencies is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations - A Best Case Scenario

Abstract

In insurgency situations, the government organized force is confronted by a small guerrilla group that is dispersed in the general population with no or very small signature. Effective counterinsurgency operations require good intelligence. Absent intelligence, not only might the insurgents escape unharmed and continue their violent actions, but collateral damage caused to the general population from poor targeting may generate adverse response against the government and create popular support for the insurgents, which may result in higher recruitment to the insurgency. We model the dynamic relations among intelligence, collateral casualties in the population, attrition, recruitment to the insurgency, and reinforcement to the government force. Even under best case assumptions we show that the government cannot totally eradicate the insurgency by force. The best it can do is contain it at a certain fixed level.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA487241

Entities

People

  • Moshe Kress
  • Roberto Szechtman

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Counter IED

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Attrition
  • Collateral Damage
  • Counterinsurgency
  • Differential Equations
  • Eigenvalues
  • Equations
  • Governments
  • Guerrilla Warfare
  • Information Operations
  • Insurgency
  • National Security
  • Operations Research
  • Psychological Operations
  • Security
  • Situational Awareness
  • Terrorism
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.