The Effect of Crowd Density on the Expected Number of Casualties in a Suicide Attack

Abstract

Utilizing elementary geometric and probability considerations, the author estimates the effect of crowd blocking in suicide bombing events. It is shown that the effect is quite significant. Beyond a certain threshold, the expected number of casualties decreases with the number of people in the arena. The numerical results of the model are consistent with casualty data from suicide bombing events in Israel. Some operational insights are discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA487315

Entities

People

  • Moshe Kress

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter IED
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Resistance
  • Blast
  • Bombs
  • Casualties
  • Dispersions
  • Explosions
  • Explosive Charges
  • Explosives
  • Kinetic Energy Projectiles
  • Line Of Sight
  • Logistics
  • Man Borne Improvised Explosive Devices
  • Military Research
  • Operations Research
  • Periodicals
  • Probability
  • Wound Ballistics

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Psychological Intervention/Treatment for Stress, Anxiety, PTSD, and Related Emotional and Cognitive Health Symptoms.