Probability Modeling of Autonomous Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs)

Abstract

Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) are advanced weapon systems that can loiter autonomously in a pack over a target area, detect and acquire the targets, and then engage them. Modeling these capabilities in a specific hostile operational setting is necessary for addressing weapons' design and operational issues. In this paper we develop several analytic probability models, which range from a simple regenerative formula to a large-scale continuous-time Markov chain, with the objective to address the aforementioned issues. While these models capture key individual aspects of the weapon such as detection, recognition, memory and survivability, special attention is given to pack related aspects such as simultaneous targeting, multiple kills due to imperfect battle damage assessment, and the effect of attack coordination. From implementing the models we gain some insights on design and operational considerations regarding the employment of a pack of UCAVs in a strike scenario.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 2006
Accession Number
ADA487432

Entities

People

  • Arne Baggesen
  • Eylam Gofer
  • Moshe Kress

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Autonomy
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Battle Damage Assessment
  • Damage
  • Damage Assessment
  • Detection
  • Identification
  • Kill Probabilities
  • Markov Chains
  • Military Operations
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Recognition
  • Vehicles
  • Warfare
  • Weapon Systems
  • Weapons

Readers

  • Aerial Unmanned Vehicle Swarm Micro Periodontal Dentistry.
  • Naval Mine Countermeasure Systems Development.
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Autonomy
  • Autonomy - UAVs