The Hidden Implications of Force Changes
Abstract
National security planners naturally draw on insights and experiences when making decisions. Past examples, national doctrine, organizational realities, threat development, technical knowledge, and fiscal analysis are used. This article explores another useful insight, one on the dynamics of system change. The system of interest concerns force levels. An increase or a decrease in force levels can lead to production dynamics that are unforeseen, and sometimes even impossible to meet. During the buildup of the 1980s, for example, the intention to achieve a 600-ship Navy, and related increases in aircraft forces, led to procurement levels that were ultimately unattainable within the budgets available. Industry could not accelerate production levels enough to meet force level increases largely because unit costs rose dramatically as demand stressed supply. The intent is to see why such production difficulties arise. The theory will present two important concepts in dynamic thinking. The first concerns the "accelerator," a concept which leads to instability -- to bottlenecks and excesses. The second involves the distinction between "stocks" and "flows." Stocks and flows explain why accelerators occur. These concepts are not completely intuitive.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1997
- Accession Number
- ADA487903
Entities
People
- Rolf Clark
Organizations
- Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy