Cognitive Biases in Military Decision Making
Abstract
This paper examines the applicability of recent findings from behavioral economics to military decision making. Army manuals concerning the Military Decision Making Process mention general biases in decision making but do not mention specific biases or specific mechanisms for mitigating bias. Recent research has shed light on specific biases to include: overconfidence, insensitivity to sample size, availability, illusionary correlation, retrievability of instances, escalation, break even, snake bite, fear of regret, and the confirmation bias. The Military Decision Making Process has a long and distinguished record of success. However, there are also examples of military failures due to cognitive bias. These failures include Lee at Gettysburg and McClellan in Virginia. Private industry and some elements of the Army have started to account for these deficiencies through various practices including coaching and training. This paper concludes that the Military Decision Making Process as described in FM 5-0 is deficient in not fully recognizing and accounting for cognitive biases. The process can be improved through several steps. These steps include not only research, education, and training, but also procedural and organizational changes.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 14, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA493560
Entities
People
- Michael J. Janser
Organizations
- United States Army War College