Too Little Too Soon? Modeling the Risks of Spiral Development

Abstract

The DoD's evolutionary acquisition policy is directed against project risk, but bears inherent risks of its own. The DoD policy for evolutionary acquisition mandates multiple product releases via spiral (i.e., amorphous and unplanned) or incremental (i.e., defined & deferred) development methodologies for all programs. All amorphous spirals eventually become definitive increments. Incremental development entails the deliberate deferral of work to a subsequent phase. Computational organizational modeling using systems dynamics reveals that this methodology introduces more concurrency during development, and more variety in production. The result is earlier delivery of the first increment, but with later and more costly delivery of subsequent increments than if conducted via a single-step methodology.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 30, 2007
Accession Number
ADA493712

Entities

People

  • David N. Ford
  • John T. Dillard

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • C4I
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Application Software
  • Business Administration
  • Case Studies
  • Command And Control
  • Commerce
  • Computer Programs
  • Configuration Management
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Logistics
  • Organizational Structure
  • Project Management
  • Public Policy
  • Short Range Ballistic Missiles
  • Software Development
  • Spiral Development
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Readers

  • Enterprise Information Systems Architecture and Joint Command Capability Interoperability Support.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design