Unwarranted Despair or Unfulfilled Hopes. An Examination of the Possibility of Armed Conflict and the Prospects of Peace Over the Spratly Islands

Abstract

In recent years, the dispute over ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea by six littoral nations has emerged as the most volatile potential flash point for armed conflict in Southeast Asia. Despite the heightened military situation since the 1980s and dire predictions by many academics and scholars, there are compelling, economic, military and political reasons for the claimants to refrain from resorting to armed conflict to resolve the Spratly Islands sovereignty issue within the next twenty years. On the other hand, China's intransigence over the question of sovereignty of these islands preclude a comprehensive solution within the same time span. While the outlook appears ostensible bleak, the United States can facilitate the chances of peace by maintaining her present policy on this issue, demonstrating an indirect interest and continue to engage rather than confront China. While armed conflict will not erupt within the next twenty years neither will a comprehensive solution emerge.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1997
Accession Number
ADA494045

Entities

People

  • Soh G. Huat

Organizations

  • Marine Corps University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Defense Industry
  • Economic Systems
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Law
  • International Relations
  • Military Science
  • National Security
  • Political Systems
  • Public Policy
  • Southeast Asia
  • Topography
  • Treaties
  • United States Pacific Command
  • War Colleges
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Educational Psychology