Defense Against Rocket Attacks in the Presence of False Cues

Abstract

Rocket attacks on civilian and military targets, from both Hezbollah (South Lebanon) and Hamas (Gaza strip) have been causing a major operational problem for the Israeli Defense Force for over two decades. In recent years, U.S. forces have faced similar attacks in Afghanistan and Iraq against both remote military outposts and in the heart of Baghdad (Green zone). The insurgents are using mortars and short-range rockets, whose launch platforms have a very low signature prior to launch. The insurgents have adopted a "shoot and scoot" tactic, making it hard to detect them in time to retaliate effectively. In this thesis, the author presents a new analytic probability model that addresses this tactical situation. The defender's decision tradeoffs are explored and quantified. A new counter mortar/rocket tactic is suggested and explored using the probability model. Also, an extended simulation model is developed to explore the scenario in which the defender is using a sensor that is subject to false positive detections.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2008
Accession Number
ADA494100

Entities

People

  • Lior Harari

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Sensors
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Collateral Damage
  • Defense Systems
  • Detection
  • Detectors
  • Guided Missiles
  • Launchers
  • Launching
  • Launching Sites
  • Mathematical Models
  • Normal Distribution
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Radar
  • Random Variables
  • Rocket Launchers
  • Simulations
  • Urban Areas

Readers

  • Cybersecurity.
  • International Relations and Conflict Resolution
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.