A Nuclear Iran: Does This Change Everything?
Abstract
Despite the relentless use of diplomatic, information, and economic instruments of power, it appears Iran is determined to enter the nuclear club as soon as possible. Iran has the motive, will, and know how to build and deliver a nuclear weapon. Its current intransigence in the face of international pressure seems to be aimed at giving Iran the one element it still needs, time. Engaging with the military instrument of power to prevent Iran from achieving its objective is highly problematic in the current national and international environment. It may be tempting to ignore the issue in favor of believing non-kinetic means will ultimately save CENTCOM from facing the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran, or that a quick, clean military strike can set significantly set back their timeline Unfortunately, this approach serves only to place the Combatant Commander in the reaction mode should Iran continue on its current course. This paper analyzes the likelihood of Iranian possession of nuclear weapons capability and the means to deliver them in the near future It then looks at the implications of this new reality in the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR). Finally, it provides recommended actions to ensure preparedness for this probable reality. Through deterrence enhanced by skillful planning, CENTCOM can ensure this wicked problem is only a new planning factor rather than an event that "changes everything" in a region of vital national interest.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 31, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA494222
Entities
People
- David W. Bliesner
Organizations
- Naval War College