Taiwan's 2001 Elections: Chen Up, KMT Down, PRC Disappointed (Asia-Pacific Security Studies. Volume 1, Number 2, March 2002)
Abstract
Taiwan's legislative elections of December 2001 saw the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) replace the traditionally-dominant Kuomintang (KMT) as the largest party in Taiwan's legislature. The DPP now holds 87 seats in the legislature compared to the KMT's 68. However, the People's First Party (PFP), ideologically similar to the KMT, has a strong presence with 46 seats. No single party will dominate the legislature. The near-term importance of this development is improved domestic political standing for the DPP and for Taiwan's previously embattled president, Chen Shui-bian, whom the DPP supports. The long-term significance is an additional indication, from a PRC perspective, that Taiwan is drifting toward independence from China. The present leadership of the KMT views Taiwan as part of China, while the DPP holds that Taiwan is a nation distinct from China. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's strengthened political position at home disappoints PRC officials who have hoped he would be a weak, one-term president. The election does not herald a major change in cross-Strait relations. On the PRC side, domestic politics for the next few years will make it difficult for Beijing to exhibit more flexibility than it showed in its Taiwan policy before the elections. On the Taiwan side, the election was not a referendum on Chen's China policy and Chen has shown no desire to move closer to formal independence. But neither is Taiwan's government likely to make a major political concession in the near future, such as acceptance of the "one-China" principle as a precondition for cross-Strait talks. While China has a strong interest in peaceful relations with the United States, an advance of pro-independence sentiment in Taiwan would increase the possibility of a conflict between China and the United States. The United States should continue to play its stabilizing role by discouraging both the use of military force by China and a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA494561
Entities
People
- Denny Roy
Organizations
- Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies