A Decision Support Model for Valuing Proposed Improvements in Component Reliability

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Defense is engaged in a number of management initiatives (related to weapon system logistics and support) intended to provide reduced life cycle costs while simultaneously improving operational availability (Ao). Performance-based Logistics (PBL) is one such program that entails the establishment of a particular kind of contractual vendor-client relationship between a logistic-service provider and a weapon-system manager. A key aspect of PBL contracts is their outcome focus; the client organization is supposed to specify key performance goals and allow the vendor to determine the best way of obtaining those goals. This paper will not re-examine the core questions of whether PBL works, or why it works. Rather, we take as our starting point the question of how best to value the desired outcomes of a PBL contract. After all, as contractual vehicles, the price of the services to be provided must be negotiated. Also, given a limited budget but a proactive program manager, there will always be more opportunities to improve logistical support for a weapon system than dollars available to fund those opportunities. Ao is a primary metric used to determine the probability that a weapon system will be capable of supporting a mission. Developing a methodology and a tool for estimating the Ao of a weapon system based on component-level reliability and maintainability data is the goal of this research. Specifically, we present two spreadsheet models and one discrete-event simulation model using Arena simulation language. The first two models support life cycle cost calculations and are static in nature. The third model incorporates the interactions among reliability, time to repair, and operational availability into a discrete-event simulation model that can support a weapon-system-level risk analysis. These models are developed as proof-of-concept to demonstrate the potential methodology using hypothetical, yet realistic data.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA498401

Entities

People

  • Keebom Kang
  • Michael Boudreau
  • Uday M. Apte

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Business Administration
  • Decision Support Systems
  • Department Of Defense
  • Fuel Cells
  • Ground Control Stations
  • Industrial Engineering
  • Logistics
  • Maintenance
  • Maintenance Costs
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Aircraft
  • Organizational Structure
  • Public Policy
  • Supply Chain
  • Supply Chain Management
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis