Gauging Future Demand for Veterans' Health Care: Does the VA Have the Forecasting Tools It Needs?
Abstract
Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me to testify today. It is an honor and pleasure to be here. I will discuss the findings from RAND's recent evaluation of the VA's Enrollee Healthcare Project Model as it relates to the topic of your hearing today. More specifically, my testimony will briefly review the findings from our evaluation, discuss the model's utility to support the proposed advance appropriation of the VA budget, and discuss recommendations for improving the model. In 1996, the mission of the Veterans Administration (VA) broadened dramatically. The Veterans' Health Care Eligibility Reform Act of 1996 transformed the VA from an episodic provider of inpatient care for veterans to a comprehensive health care provider responsible for all the medical needs of veterans who enroll. To support budgeting and planning for this broader mission, the VA relies on a complex model known as the Enrollee Health Care Projection Model (EHCPM). This model predicts future demand for veterans' health care needs. The VA asked RAND (in conjunction with an independent actuary) to evaluate the model, which was developed and is operated by an actuarial consulting firm. The RAND team reviewed how the model works and addressed three main questions in its evaluation: Does the modeling approach support long-term budget planning and policy analysis?; Does it accurately project VA service demand and costs?; Is the design and operation of the model transparent to users and outside parties? Overall, RAND's evaluation found that the EHCPM is useful for short-term budget planning, but it is less useful for longer range planning, especially in a dynamic policy environment. Fortunately, the model is structured in a way that would allow modifications to support longer term policy and planning applications without disrupting its usefulness for near-term budget planning.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA498586
Entities
People
- Katherine M. Harris
Organizations
- RAND Corporation