An Analysis of the U.S. Pilot Population From 1983-2005: Evaluating the Effects of Regulatory Change
Abstract
The size of the U.S. civil aviator community has been of interest to researchers, policy makers, and special interest groups. A strict definition for membership in the U.S. pilot population was used that was based on Scientific Information System principles. This approach provides methods for scientists to describe, quantify, and predict changes in this population over the 23-year study period. The Bioinformatics Research Team at the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) analyzed and modeled the counts of the U.S. pilot population using a segmented linear regression model. A dataset was constructed, based upon the methods prescribed by Scientific Information System principles of data construction, from 1983 to 2005. This methodology was selected since the data represent the entire population of pilots, rather than just a sample. Thus, the statistical results are population parameters, rather than estimates, and are not subject to sampling error. The airmen population was constructed and examined for each year of the study period. The criterion for membership of the U.S. civil pilot population is based on the medical examination that each airman must pass to hold a pilot certificate. A segmented linear regression model was chosen because of its flexibility in accounting for any policy changes that occurred over the 23-year study period. The CAMI Scientific Information System provided the foundation to build a segmented linear regression model pertaining to the counts of the U.S. civil pilot population; from these results it was possible for the first time to explain the changing frequencies over time and make fact-based predictions concerning future population numbers. The capability now exists to categorize the population by gender, medical class, age, and experience over a two-decade time period. The model constructed clearly shows a decline in the overall U.S. civil aviator community.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA500291
Entities
People
- Connie L. Peterman
- Estrella M. Forster
- James E. Whinnery
- Paul B. Rogers
- Stephen J. Veronneau
Organizations
- Federal Aviation Administration