Iran With Nuclear Weapons: Anticipating the Consequences for U.S. Policy
Abstract
A growing body of evidence leaves less and less doubt that Iran's drive to develop an indigenous, closed nuclear-fuel cycle is tied to the ambitions of its leadership to possess a nuclear weapons capability. Notwithstanding the protestations of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, Iran appears to be embarked on a clear path to cross the nuclear threshold and become a nuclear weapons power. By one estimate, Iran is 80 percent on the way to developing a functioning nuclear weapon. Up until now, and as reflected in the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear programs, Western analysts, with the exception of the Israelis, had been saying that Iran was not likely to have in hand the knowledge base and capabilities to cross the nuclear threshold until sometime in the mid-to-later years of the next decade. Since the release of the NIE, however, new information has come to light, prompting nuclear experts in the United States, Britain, and France to revise their earlier estimates. Most now conclude that Iran is not only embarked on a weapons path, but is likely to attain enough fissile material for an indigenously produced bomb far sooner than had been anticipated, sometime in the next year and a half to two years. This is more or less consistent with Israeli estimates that suggest late 2009 as the earliest possible date that Iran will be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon. The Israelis further contend that once the Iranians produce enough enriched uranium, they could build a nuclear weapon in six to eighteen months.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA501223
Entities
People
- Jacquelyn K. Davis
- Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr.