Forecasting Evil: Strategic Warning in the Prevention of Mass Atrocities
Abstract
Mass atrocities are among the most horrible of human endeavors and most perplexing of policy problems. U.S. presidents have consistently articulated that it is in the country's national interests to prevent the occurrence of such tragedies. Unfortunately, recent history points to multiple events where America failed to achieve this noble objective. Today, policy makers and national security professionals must wrestle with the challenge of rectifying this disparity between desired and actual outcomes. This study recommends one action to help overcome this challenge. It argues that improving the United States Government's ability to conduct strategic warning of mass atrocities provides a viable option to enhance America's ability to prevent mass atrocities. First, this work will validate the need for addressing this problem by briefly reviewing U.S. policy and past challenges in preventing mass atrocities. Second, it will point out the important role that effective strategic warning can play in achieving the desired policy end. Finally, it will discuss how the U.S. Intelligence Community can apply a comprehensive approach to address these challenges.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 24, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA501233
Entities
People
- J. G. Howard
Organizations
- United States Army War College