India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications
Abstract
The National Intelligence Council sponsored workshop entitled Implications of Global Climate Change in India on March 27,2009, brought together a panel of media experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on media from a social, political, and economic perspective. The panelists judged the practical effects of climate change on India were uncertain, but they concluded India will most likely be able to manage them out to 2030. 1) Agriculture and rural society will face the most severe disruptions from climate change. India may need a second "Green Revolution" to deal with these disruptions. 2) Climate change will most likely cause mass migrations both within media and from neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. Refugee flows from other South Asian states are also possible. Internal migrations will mainly be from rural areas into India's cities, which are ill-equipped to deal with large influxes of environmental migrants. 3) Climate change will in many cases exacerbate existing inequities in India's society and economy, potentially leading to internal social disruptions. 4) While a general state failure in India is unlikely, India may accumulate a number of failed constituent states. The states most at risk are the densely-populated, underdeveloped, and politically unstable states of India's northeastern agricultural heartland.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA502189
Entities
Organizations
- Office of the Director of National Intelligence