The Myth of the Unsustainable Army: An Analysis of Army Deployments, the All Volunteer Force, and the Army Force Generation Model

Abstract

In 2008 the Army declared that the current demand for forces in Iraq and Afghanistan was unsustainable. This thesis asks if this is a fair and accurate assessment. The Army developed the Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN) Model in response to a condition of continuous deployments. This model established ratios of deployment to dwell time that separate into "steady state" and "sustainable surge" conditions. Through a thorough examination of brigade deployment histories, recruitment and retention numbers, and the ARFORGEN model, this thesis finds that the Army is sustainable at deployment levels experienced between 2005 and 2008. Additionally, the thesis finds that the Army model does not account for unit overlap, assumes mobilization authorities it does not possess, and serves as a force sizing construct. The Army's message of unsustainability and its current construct of the ARFORGEN Model should be re-evaluated in light of these findings.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 12, 2009
Accession Number
ADA502348

Entities

People

  • Michael S. Johnson

Organizations

  • United States Army Command and General Staff College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Active Duty
  • Artillery
  • Business Administration
  • Congress
  • Department Of Defense
  • Deployment
  • Dwell Time
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Federal Budgets
  • Iraqi-War
  • Law
  • Lessons Learned
  • Military Science
  • Personnel Management
  • Steady State
  • United States
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Military Mobilization and Reserve Forces Studies.
  • Strategic Security Studies

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Neural Networks