An Extended Deterrence Regime to Counter Iranian Nuclear Weapons: Issues and Options

Abstract

This paper examines the idea of creating an American-led extended deterrence regime in the Middle East to address potential Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons and missiles. It does not focus on how to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed power; instead, it addresses how the U.S. Government can act to deter Iran in a future setting where it already possesses these weapons and is trying to employ them to geopolitical advantage. Developing a coherent strategy can lessen the risk that the United States will be surprised, compelled to improvise, and unable to lead effectively in the Middle East and elsewhere. Even as the Administration employs diplomacy, sanctions, and multilateral cooperation to derail Iran from the nuclear path, it should also develop a clear sense of how it will react if, as is possible, Iran emerges as a nuclear power, led by a radical government with a menacing foreign policy. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently stated that Iran should consider the consequences of a U.S. "defense umbrella over the region." This paper explores many of the issues related to such an umbrella. Key questions arise regarding an extended deterrence regime. What Iranian threats would this regime try to deter? Who would it protect, and how would it protect them? How much deterrence is possible, and how much is enough? What shape would a deterrence regime take, how would it operate, and would it be effective? What options are available? The paper puts forth six options of varying political feasibility and strategic performance for creating an extended deterrence regime and evaluates them comparatively. Its intent is to illuminate issues and options, not to advocate any single approach. At the end, it offers summary conclusions and recommendations.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2009
Accession Number
ADA506830

Entities

People

  • Richard L. Kugler

Organizations

  • National Defense University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Combat Forces
  • Defense Planning
  • Defense Systems
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Geography
  • Homeland Security
  • Human Behavior
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Personnel Management
  • Terrorists
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • Strategic Security Studies