When Is Deterrence Necessary? Gauging Adversary Intent
Abstract
Deterrence has formed the core mission of the U.S. military since the Cold War era; however, a great deal of deterrence theory and planning derived from presumptions about adversary intent which were based on capabilities analysis with no consideration of what might happen if deterrence succeeded and the adversary's intent was frustrated. The DO-JOC rectified a basic problem in previous deterrence thinking by recognizing that an adversary has a choice between complying with a demand to refrain from action and defying that demand -- and that the adversary will consider the expected value of each of these options. No longer is "restraint" considered an option that is outside of the deterrence calculus for the adversary or the deterrer. This has opened significant doors to making the deterrence planning and assessment processes used by the U.S. military much more sophisticated and, hopefully, effective. Getting the basic framework correct has led to the next issue: determining how much the adversary desires to undertake particular actions. This requires assessing adversary intent. Intelligence officers, uniformed and civilian, have indicated that producing such analyses is considered more of an art than a science and that no processes have been established. Yet, such a process needs to be established to infer adversary intent on a continuous basis so that a usable product is available to assist in routine planning or in the event of a crisis. Such a process should begin with a skeleton framework that focuses on producing at least two narratives of adversary behavior: a Strategic Intent Model and an Internal Logic Model. The Strategic Intent narrative would build a case that the adversary was intending to act to achieve external goals. The Internal Logic narrative would build a similar case to explain what the adversary might intend to do, but its focus would be on the internal or domestic imperatives and constraints facing the adversary's leadership.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA511452
Entities
People
- Gary Schaub Jr.
Organizations
- Air War College