Probabilistic Plan Management

Abstract

The general problem of planning for uncertain domains remains a difficult challenge. Research that focuses on constructing plans by reasoning with explicit models of uncertainty has produced some promising mechanisms for coping with specific types of domain uncertainties; however, these approaches generally have difficulty scaling. Research in robust planning has alternatively emphasized the use of deterministic planning techniques, with the goal of constructing a flexible plan (or set of plans) that can absorb deviations during execution. Such approaches are scalable, but either result in overly conservative plans, or ignore the potential leverage that can be provided by explicit uncertainty models. The main contribution of this work is a composite approach to planning that couples the strengths of both the above approaches while minimizing their weaknesses. Our approach, called Probabilistic Plan Management (PPM), takes advantage of the known uncertainty model while avoiding the overhead of non-deterministic planning. PPM takes as its starting point a deterministic plan that is built with deterministic modeling assumptions. PPM begins by layering an uncertainty analysis on top of the plan. The analysis calculates the overall expected outcome of execution and can be used to identify expected weak areas of the schedule.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 17, 2009
Accession Number
ADA512405

Entities

People

  • Laura M Hiatt

Organizations

  • Carnegie Mellon University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Science
  • Control Systems
  • Discrete Distribution
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Machine Learning
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Normal Distribution
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Simulators

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Systems Analysis and Design